Voting to Inflict Intentional Harm

•5 November 2008 • No Comments

Today, I am happy that Barack Obama was elected as our next President. I’ve supported him since the summer of 2007 and tried to spread the word about his candidacy through 2008. I’m glad that the nation will turn the corner and head down a brighter street.


But that’s where my contentment ends.


This week, I’m going to have to deal with the fact that I’m angry. Truly angry. In what is supposed to be one of the most welcoming, open states in the union - my home state of California - the population voted to write prejudice and discrimination into the state’s constitution. “Only marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized in California.” Into the constitution.


I’m angry because this result was not caused by something that gays and lesbians in California failed to do. I can guarantee you that pretty much every gay and lesbian in the state turned out and voted “no”. But we only make up ten percent of the electorate. At best. We’re a small minority. As a minority we have to rely on the majority to act fairly, to follow the law, and where necessary act as their better natures direct.


No, this result was caused by that majority, the straight people of California - people who regularly like to think of themselves and promote themselves and their state as progressive and open - actively deciding to strip rights away from a minority. To intentionally choose to inflict damage on other people who have done nothing to them. To decide collectively to punish the few for being born different from them.


I’m angry because the truth has been laid bare. This wasn’t the result of some special election, low turnout or Republican electoral strategy. Turnout was at record levels, it was a Presidential election, and Republicans were busy containing damage elsewhere to pay attention to what was happening in California. No, this was a decision by a good majority of straight Californians. Including those that voted for Barack Obama. Including Democrats. Including those in urban areas. Including African Americans. Including other minorities who ask that we act fairly, follow the law and act as our better natures direct but aren’t willing to do the same.


This wasn’t a failure of gays and lesbians to “stand up for our rights”. We spoke up. We’re visible in California. We are an integral part of the economy and social fabric of the state. We’re one of the reasons the California is different from other places.


No, this was a failure of our straight friends. Our families. Our colleagues. This was a failure of those who we consider our allies to act on what they believe. A failure to protect. A failure to advocate. A failure to stand up and ask, “If we, the majority do this to a minority, what will we do next? And to which small group of people next?”


Months ago, I discussed the discrimination amendment with a long time straight friend of mine. I have no doubt that he would act to protect me if I was in harm. I have no doubt that he considers me part of his family. I have no doubt that he, himself, voted “no”. Months ago he told me, “Don’t worry Mark, this will never pass. Not in this state. It’s ridiculous.”


I was skeptical, but I appreciated the support. It didn’t stop me from reaching out to all of my straight friends to ask that they make sure to vote and to talk with their friends and help spread the “no” message and counter the ridiculous arguments being plastered in the media and across the countryside by the proponents of discrimination. And it didn’t stop me from making sure my gay friends did the same.


But the poll results speak for themselves. My friend’s attitude was commendable, but I now realize that that attitude was a splinter that has enshrined, at best, the infection of “separate but equal” within our constitution and has possibly set the stage for far, far worse. His attitude that “it could never happen here”, I’m afraid, was the attitude of the vast majority of the straight allies that we trusted to help us stop this constitutional assault.


It turns out that even in California, the majority of straights have decided that discrimination is ok as long as it applies to someone else. It’s ok as long it doesn’t apply to them. It’s not like this amendment outlawed divorce. It’s not like it outlawed adoption by “married” couples. No, it just impacts a few. It’s just 10%.


I’m angry that I am having to concede that we will live in a world of separate but equal, likely for my lifetime. That I will have to budget for increased legal fees in the future to protect myself and my partner – costs that no straight person has to consider. That I cannot rely on my state to treat me as an equal in the eyes of the law, because now the law says specifically that I’m not to be equal.


And I’m angry that I will have to look over my shoulder and keep my guard up. Because, even in California, there are people who wish me harm. And, even in California, there are bystanders who aren’t willing to say “stop”.

Number 44

•4 November 2008 • 1 Comment

oyeah1

Valentine Lake

•22 October 2008 • No Comments

Last Sunday I took a hike to Valentine Lake.  I decided late in the day and didn’t get on the trail until 2pm. Just in time, as it turned out because I got back to the car just as it was getting too dark in the forests to see.

I took a hike up this trail in the spring this year, but I was stopped by snow about a mile or so away from the lake.  And earlier this summer, the slope you see in the picture below (which was taken from Mammoth looking southeast) was on fire - the closest a major fire has gotten to my house since I’ve lived in town.

 On the trail I was also trying out a GPS tracking application on my iPhone.  I was using TrailGuru on Sunday, and also have a copy of RunKeeper (which I’ve used on the mountain bike.) In this area, the GPS tracker works ok, but you’ve got to be careful about where you carry it. This trail runs south on the way in, in the direction of most of the satellites.  I think the combination of trees and the location in my backpack hid the skies from the iPhone part of the way in.  On the way out, however, the tracking was perfect.

And one of the good things about TrailGuru is the ability to send a track to the web site and then onto Google Earth…and here’s the trail view in that program!

 The trail is about 9 or so miles round trip and 2,000+ feet in elevation gain - a nice afternoon hike around here.  Once up there, the lake is the prototypical alpine lake, surrounded by peaks, rock and forest.  Here are two views looking south.

 

 From the rocks above the lake you can turn north and see the eastern part of Mammoth in the distance.  It was stunningly clear, so you can also see to the peaks north of Bridgeport, the Bodie Hills, and into parts of Nevada as well.  All in all, a great hike.

Catching up…first snows…

•22 October 2008 • No Comments

I’m catching up on posting some pictures of the first snows this year.  After the bigger of the two storms I headed up Rock Creek canyon to grab some pictures of Little Lakes Valley.  Didn’t hike too far in, just enough to get some pictures.  This one is the entrance of the valley, just after the initial elevation gain.

Then I hiked up and onto a set of rocks above a lake to get a better view of Mt. Dane and Mt. Abbot at the southern end of the valley.

Pulling back a bit from that view, you can see the lake in front (one of many) and Rock Creek which flows through the center of the valley, out through the glacial moraine and eventually flows through the faucets of Los Angeles.  Oh well, it’s pretty when its up here.

It’s 17 days from the Election. You’re John McCain. What do you do?

•18 October 2008 • No Comments

You’re John McCain.  You’re low on funds (relatively, compared to a juggernaught against you). You have 17 days.  You’re behind. Where do you put your limited resources and time in the next three weeks?

 

First, McCain can count on the following states to fall into his camp: Oklahoma, Wyoming, Utah, Idaho, Alabama, Nebraska, Kansas, Alaska, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arizona, Texas, Mississippi, South Dakota, Montana, Louisiana, Georgia and North Dakota.  In addition to these, with minimal effort McCain can probably count on Arkansas and Indiana.  In Arkansas the economy has taken a toll, reducing McCain’s margin but it’s highly unlikely even with the Clintons’ help that the state will go blue. And while Indiana flirted with toss-up status, this caused a huge panic within Republican party and they have now flooded the state with resources. If Indiana goes blue it’s likely other red states would as well, so they are going to stop that possibility. So assuming the GOP maintains that resource level it will be an uphill slog for Obama to win the state, even with the bleed over from the Chicago and other media markets.

 

This is a total of 21 states and 169 electoral votes that McCain can reasonably count on. He needs 101 more electoral votes to get to 270. Note that all of the states in the above list voted for Bush in 2004 (are “red”).

 

Next, he’d consider which are states where he has no chance and no operations currently because they are almost certain to go for Obama.  These states are: Vermont, Washington DC, Hawaii, Rhode Island, New York, Maryland, Illinois, Connecticut, California, Delaware, Washington, Oregon, Iowa, Maine, New Jersey, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota.

 

McCain is contesting Pennsylvania currently, but the polls show Obama’s lead in double digits. So why is McCain wasting valuable time and money?  Because the GOP and the McCain campaign have given up on every single one of the states that Kerry won in 2004 except for Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.  We’ll look at the total math in a second (and why McCain is still in these two states), but if you’re inside the McCain campaign and being realistic, you have to put both Pennsylvania and New Hampshire in Obama’s column.  (The current odds of Obama winning all Kerry states is 93%, and both states went for Kerry).

 

So, this means that the McCain campaign has to consider 21 states and 259 electoral votes blue.  This means that Obama has in place all of Kerry’s states and he has flipped one 2004 red one, Iowa with 7 electoral votes, to blue. This places the Democrat 11 electoral votes from election.

 

If you’re McCain, where does that leave the math?  McCain has 169 electoral vote in his base, Obama has 259 electoral votes.  And nine states with 110 electoral votes that are theoretically “in play”.  McCain will have to win 101 of these 110 electoral votes to win (92%).  Gulp.  Now would be a good time for a whiskey, neat.

 

If McCain looks at 2004, Bush won with 286 electoral votes, 16 more than needed to win.  In 2000, Bush won with 278 electoral votes, just 8 votes over a win. Starting with the 2004 map, and subtracting Iowa (now a core Obama state and voted blue in 2000) then the “red base” is 279 electoral votes.  This is the argument that many in the Republican party are now using – “protect the base!” The theory goes that the current political and economic environment is such that McCain should stop wasting resources in Pennsylvania and put everything on the rest of the red states to narrowly win the election.

 

This is threading the needle, and it’s pretty much what McCain will have to acknowledge in the next week.  If he’s to win, it’s going to be a very, very narrow victory. The nine “at play” states with 110 electoral votes are;

 

Virginia, 13 electoral votes, voted for Bush in 2000 & 2004, currently estimated at 94% probability for Obama

Florida, 27 electoral votes, voted for Bush in 2000 & 2004, currently estimated at 84% probability for Obama

Ohio, 20 electoral votes, voted for Bush in 2000 & 2004, currently estimated at 76% probability for Obama

Missouri, 11 electoral votes, voted for Bush in 2000 & 2004, currently estimated at 64% probability for Obama

North Carolina, 15 electoral votes, voted for Bush in 2000 & 2004, currently estimated at 59% probability for Obama

 

New Mexico, 4 electoral votes, voted for Bush in 2004, currently estimated at 91% probability for Obama

Colorado, 9 electoral votes, voted for Bush in 2000 & 2004, currently estimated at 90% probability for Obama

Nevada, 5 electoral votes, voted for Bush in 2000 & 2004, currently estimated at 77% probability for Obama

West Virginia, 5 electoral votes, voted for Bush in 2000 & 2004, currently estimated at 50%-50%

 

If McCain is to win, he must not lose more than nine electoral votes from this list.  He can afford to lose any of the bottom four states alone.  He can lose New Mexico and either Nevada or West Virginia.  If he can somehow flip New Hampshire he can offset a loss in New Mexico (what happened between Bush and Gore in 2000.)  But these are sideshows now.  They are battlegrounds because they are flipping demographically and in a close election Obama would have needed one or more of these small states to seal a win.  But that’s not where the race is today.

 

The real story is that John McCain cannot lose ANY of the five states of Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Missouri or North Carolina.  And that’s his needle to thread, he must win them all.  All are in the eastern or central time zones. On election night, if McCain loses any of these states then the election is over and all that will matter the rest of the night is how big Obama’s electoral win is.  Indiana is a target of the Obama campaign because it would also be in this list if it was closer – and that’s what the Obama campaign is trying to make happen in the next 10 days (again, an uphill chore).

 

McCain is on a quixotic hunt in Pennsylvania because it’s his last hope that he can change this math.  Pennsylvania has 21 electoral votes and if he could pick up that one, he could afford to lose in Ohio or in any two of Virginia, North Carolina or Missouri.  But the Republican party and outside observers has decided that, outside of a major game changing event, Pennsylvania is out of reach of McCain.

 

So it’s Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina.  McCain must win them all.  And Obama must stop him from winning them all.

SNL: Crazy McCain Lady…

•17 October 2008 • No Comments

The debate skit this Thursday wasn’t all that, but the anchors of Weekend Update do a great job talking about the overall campaign, and with “Crazy McCain Lady” make a point about all of the rediculous assertions made across the Internet and in chain emails.  Nice job!
 

more about “Saturday Night Live - Update: Crazy M…“, posted with vodpod

 

 

The deed is done and my vote is in…

•15 October 2008 • No Comments

No one will be surprised. In California voting has already started. So go get your ballot and vote now! Monday is the deadline for voter registration, you can fill out the form at www.voteforchange.com.

Bon Hiver!

•11 October 2008 • No Comments

There’s a joke here in the high Sierra that Mammoth has four seasons; early winter, winter, late winter and summer.  Well, summer ended abruptly yesterday.

For those who haven’t read my blog in the fall in the past, “bon hiver” means “good winter” in French and it’s a traditional greeting for the day on which the first snow falls that sticks on the ground and begins the annual white build up for winter. It’s sort of a new year’s day in the mountains as the snow falls and wipes away the past year and creates a clean slate. “Bon hiver” was inserted into popular lexicon by the show “Northern Exposure” – a show that is a bit reminiscent of the high mountain town of Mammoth.

It came earlier than expected and as somewhat of a surprise this year.  We had received a dusting of snow above 9,500 feet last weekend which left the peaks white, and the leave changing in town.  On Thursday we were warned that the temps were about to dive, but that we’d just get a few flakes in town.  Well, no.  About a foot fell at the house and it’s clear that the snow is going to stick around on the ground for awhile and stay on the mountain for the winter.  And as I write this it’s lightly snowing still.

This is a picture of a pond near Lake Mary earlier today.  I thought I’d get a nice picture of snow around it, only to find out that it had already frozen over (to a slushy like consistency).

This is a picture looking towards Mammoth Crest (crest of the Sierra) from Twin Lakes.  In the winter, this is the entrance to the groomed cross country ski area

And I took a hike around the old Mammoth Consolidated Mine site (1920s and 1930s) and the entrance to one of the mine shafts was surrounded by icicles, which was great.  The mine temps are steady year round, but feel warm in the winter (above freezing) and so the snow melt around it.

So to everyone, bon hiver, and best wishes for the coming Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas and all that stuff.  I hope you have a good winter.

It’s the big debate…parody

•5 October 2008 • No Comments

Still excellent. Loved the take on Biden constantly saying he loves John McCain but McCain’s unstable. As for Tina Fey’s take on Sarah Palin - still spot on and captures the feeling of a lot of the country, “What is this person doing running for VP?”

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It’s beginning to look a lot like…October

•5 October 2008 • No Comments

Yep…the mountain is white above 9,000 feet.  Most of this is going to end up melting in the next week, but it’s the start of the annual process of lowering the ground temperature so that following snowfalls stick.

But it’s pretty.  And the cold temps will trigger the fall colors to rapidly move down the slopes.

You know, I’m ready for the fall and winter.